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Larry Summers reacts to an offhand post of mine, seeking to
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that what he has been saying differs from the approach I
took way back in 1998. And I¡Çve both acknowledged that and
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Back in 1998, when I tried to think through the logic of
the liquidity trap, I used a strategic simplification: I
envisaged an economy in which the current level of the
Wicksellian natural rate of interest was negative, but that
rate would return to a normal, positive level at some
future date. ¡Ê2¡Ë

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This assumption provided a neat way to deal with the
intuition that increasing the money supply must eventually
raise prices by the same proportional amount; it was easy
to show that this proposition applied only if the money
increase was perceived as permanent, so that the liquidity
trap became an expectations problem.¡Ê3¡Ë

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But what is this future period of Wicksellian normality of
which we speak?
Japan now looks like an economy in which a negative natural
rate is a more or less permanent condition. So,
increasingly, does Europe. And the US may be in the same
boat, if only because persistent weakness abroad will lead
to a strong dollar, and we will end up importing demand
weakness.¡Ê4¡Ë

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